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We all know that the election is going to be close. With… - Rat Ramblings [entries|archive|friends|userinfo]
Nicodemus

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[Oct. 21st, 2004|10:06 am]
Nicodemus
[Current Mood |worriedworried]
[Current Music |The Ramones - I Wanna Be Sedated]

We all know that the election is going to be close. With international opinion wavering, Bush is looking for shows of support. But does Bush have an ace up his sleeve? I did predict we'd see a high-level Al Qaeda capture just before the election... Will it swing the vote? Or am I getting too paranoid?

Poll #370430 October Surprise?

What are the chances Osama be "captured" before the election?

0% : Don't fall for paranoia and rumors!
1(2.7%)
1-20% : Barely credible, but it just might happen by some means
13(35.1%)
20-50% : They may know where he is, but effecting a capture (and PR) would be tricky
6(16.2%)
50-80% : Entirely possible, given how much effort Bush et al can throw at it
9(24.3%)
80-99% : They know where he is, it's just a matter of maneuvering and negotiations
3(8.1%)
100% : Karl Rove is the puppetmaster!
5(13.5%)
LinkReply

Comments:
[User Picture]From: frysco
2004-10-21 05:37 pm (UTC)
I'd think that if Osama were captured just prior to the election, everyone would see the spin for what it is and it hurt the Republicans.

While I would not be suprised if there were an October Suprise, I think that it will be something else.
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[User Picture]From: nicodemusrat
2004-10-21 06:00 pm (UTC)
everyone would see the spin for what it is and it hurt the Republicans.

I applaud your faith in the voters but I'm a bit more cynical. I do think some/most people would recognize that the timing was PR, but there would be a huge outpouring of jingoistic support for Bush since he did succeed in the "war".
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[User Picture]From: murasadramon
2004-10-21 05:47 pm (UTC)
While I'm not entirely sure I believe all the information on Information Clearing House, it does beg the question your asking: What happens if Osama is brought in? We have little less than half a month until elections come about. If Osama were to magically appear, in custody -- OR dead -- Bush would win hands down.

There'd be no question about it.

But if he did win, it would spark quite a controversy. It'd be another "stolen election". We couldn't get close to Osama in two years, and *BAM* he's brought out when he's needed most? "Terrorism" seems to be one of the primary concerns of people for this election. Our country has had the smallest rate of terrorism of almost any country in the world. It's not even an issue, shouldn't be.

And yet...
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[User Picture]From: nicodemusrat
2004-10-21 05:58 pm (UTC)
I'm sure that I don't believe all of the information there. :) And they, too, label it as being rumors.

But, as you say, it makes for interesting discussion and consideration. That was what I was hoping for. I agree with your conclusions that it'd swing the election to Bush but it would also be tainted... Granted, that hasn't slowed him much in the past.
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[User Picture]From: bluerain
2004-10-21 06:09 pm (UTC)
Karl Rove is overrated.

I mean, if you look at his career, his major skill isn't actually a skill at all--it's the fact that he has no shame, and is willing to do things like bug his own office and blame the Democratic opposition, or launch a whisper campaign accusing John McCain of fathering a mixed-race child with a prostitute. His "skill" is that he does things that used to be considered off-limits even by political standards.

That kind of dirty politics works at the state level, but considering that his major dirty smear this time out (the Swift Boat thing) seems to have had a fairly minimal impact, I think Rove may finally be out of his league.

Of course, having said that, I'm going to look pretty stupid if he does pull bin Laden out of his sock drawer on November 1, propelling Bush to victory. ;>
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[User Picture]From: witchofnovember
2004-10-21 07:21 pm (UTC)
But where do the Dragon Illuminatee stand on this election? I think I know where Bono of U2 stands.
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[User Picture]From: bluerain
2004-10-21 08:08 pm (UTC)
I imagine they're for the Democrats. They don't approve of competition in the "evil conspiracy" department.
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[User Picture]From: crocodile
2004-10-21 07:37 pm (UTC)
As much as I'd want to believe that America's voters are too clever to fall for such an obvious trick, let us not forget that many of them actually believe Bush has done a GREAT job and should be president AGAIN, ever after likely not winning the FIRST election!

If anything speaks of the sad state of our educational system, it is this.

I mean, of COURSE Bush is going on and on about not letting other countries dictate what AMERICA is going to do. Most of them can't believe that we'd actually re-elect such an obvious loser, and our popularity as a nation is sure to plummet with such displays of foolishness.
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[User Picture]From: traveller_blues
2004-10-21 09:22 pm (UTC)
Actually, there was a report somewhat recently about how the Pakistani anti-terrorism forces were being nudged pretty hard to land a big-name terrorist right around the elections, in order to help the current government...

...and honestly, all we'd really need is some polling places to get blown up in a spectacular fashion for fingerpointing to be done. *knock on wood and hopes it doesn't happen*

-Traveller
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[User Picture]From: nicodemusrat
2004-10-21 10:16 pm (UTC)
I remembered hearing the same thing but couldn't find a convenient link to tie into my post. We'll see what happens and hope for the best...
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[User Picture]From: dour
2004-10-22 12:07 am (UTC)
In all honesty, I've gotta agree with batratblue on this one. 9/11 may be the first time most people heard his name, but Osama was well known and very high on the wanted list long before then. He has always been in hiding, we've always been looking for him, and he always used to send out tapes on every holiday and whenever the US did anything he disapproved of.

No tapes for a loooooong time. The answer is, he's already dead.
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[User Picture]From: brigus
2004-10-22 04:56 pm (UTC)
And this is why I encourage everyone to be a Permanent Absentee Voter like me. I'm done! Stuck it in the mail today. Nothing can change my vote now.
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